Morning brief · loading…
Before the open
What I'm watching pre-market, what my agents flagged overnight, and the three things I'll actually do today.
market status loading\u2026
Today's call
Stay long the Physical Layer, trim Frontier on strength.
S&P at 7,022 confirms bull market. TSM Thursday validates compute. Iran ceasefire expires ~April 22 — portfolio positioned both ways. Holding Core, watching Frontier trim levels, VRT buyback pending into weakness.
BIAS Long Physical Layer
WATCH Frontier trims
CASH reserved → VRT
Macro · pre-market
What the market is pricing
S&P 500
7,022
all-time high
VIX
14.20
complacent, not euphoric
10Y Treasury
4.28%
flat w/w
WTI crude
$78.40
Iran ceasefire premium
Today's actions
What I'd do at these prices
BUY
Adding on weakness
TRIM
Taking off on strength
WATCH
Not held yet
This week
Catalysts I'm tracking
THU 4/23
TSM Q1 earnings. Compute layer validator. Watch capex guide, Nvidia commentary, AI chip mix.
→ affects MU, AVGO, ASML, ANET
TUE 4/22
Iran ceasefire expires. Portfolio positioned both scenarios — long Power if it holds, long CEG/VST if oil spikes.
→ affects CEG, VST, OKLO, WTI
WED 4/29
NBIS earnings. $3.0–3.4B revenue target. MSFT + Meta contract detail. Pre-earnings drift in play.
→ NBIS is 13% of Core
ONGOING
XNDU Nvidia Ising follow-through. +70% spike on 4/14, trimmed 4/15. Now watching $20 support into Thu/Fri.
→ stop $24, trim $32
Portfolio status
Where the book stands this morning
Core · compounders
12 positions
Power · Compute · Data Center
In range. Watching the Core compounders into earnings.
Frontier · moonshots
6 positions
Photonics · Quantum · Off-World
Ladder-trim discipline active. Specific levels disclosed in Substack.
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