Leveraged ETF Risk Score · educational · free

2x daily ETFs are not a portfolio. They're a stop-clock.

I get asked about NOWL, NVDX, TSLR, MSTU every week. Most of the people asking shouldn't own them. Not because the underlying thesis is wrong — because the math of daily-reset 2x/3x ETFs decays your position even when the underlying recovers. Here's the score for the names retail keeps chasing.

Verdict: Levered ETFs are tactical instruments with a 5-day shelf life. Hold longer and decay + fees compound against you. Almost no leveraged ETF on this page is a buy-and-hold.
Risk board · single-stock 2x/3x ETFs

Color-coded for buy-and-hold suitability. Live prices · daily-reset assumptions.

Ticker Underlying Lev Last Day % Fee Risk score Use case
Loading risk board…

Risk score is 0-100 (lower = worse for buy-and-hold). It blends: annualized decay drag (function of underlying's 30-day realized vol), expense ratio drag, AUM/liquidity, and time-in-market suitability. Sources: GraniteShares, Direxion, ProShares fund pages · 2026.

The math · why these decay

If you read no other section, read this one.

01
Volatility decay

A 2x daily ETF resets every market close. If the underlying goes +5% day 1 and -5% day 2, the underlying is at −0.25%. The 2x ETF is at −1%. The drag compounds. Over 30 days of chop, that's typically 2-5% lost to decay alone — independent of which way the stock goes.

02
Expense ratio drag

Most single-stock 2x ETFs charge 0.95% to 1.50% per year. That's 3-6× the cost of holding the underlying directly through any major broker. Over 12 months of holding NOWL at 1.50%, you've paid more in fees than most index funds charge in a decade.

03
Liquidity stress

Most single-stock leveraged ETFs run $20-100M AUM. The bid-ask spread is tight in calm markets but widens fast on dislocation. The day you most need to exit (gap-down on the underlying) is the day the spread costs you 1-3%.

04
2x downside is real

Retail buys these for the upside. The downside scales the same way. Your 2x NVDA position doesn't 2x against the QQQ — it 2x's against idiosyncratic NVDA risk, which is much higher. One Jensen-Huang miss, one export-control headline, and the position halves in a session.

When they DO make sense

Not "never." Just "almost always not for the people asking."

  • Defined-loss tactical bet: 5-day max hold, capital you can lose, defined exit price. Treat like an options position with a smaller learning curve.
  • Earnings-bounce play: stock dropped on transient headwind, you have a clear catalyst window (5-10 sessions), you're disciplined enough to exit on time-stop.
  • Hedge against a single name you already own: rare, but you can use a 2x inverse against a position you don't want to sell for tax reasons.
  • What it is NOT for: long-term wealth building, "I want more NVDA exposure", "I'll just hold it through the dip." The decay math says you'll regret all three.
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